{"id":143,"date":"2018-08-18T10:40:54","date_gmt":"2018-08-18T15:40:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/?page_id=143"},"modified":"2020-02-18T08:53:54","modified_gmt":"2020-02-18T13:53:54","slug":"article-12","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/article-12\/","title":{"rendered":"Article 12"},"content":{"rendered":"

BELIEF: AN OWNER\u2019S MANUAL<\/strong>
ARTICLE 12 <\/strong>
A CLOSER LOOK AT AMBIGUITY<\/strong>
PART 5:<\/strong>
RULES OF THUMB<\/strong><\/p>\n

More ambiguous than imprecise beliefs and less ambiguous than catalytic narratives are beliefs I refer to as \u201crules of thumb.\u201d Rules of thumb include \u2013 but are not limited to \u2013 maxims that come to mind when we think of that phrase (e.g., \u201cWhen you\u2019re trout fishing, move to the next likely spot in the stream if you don\u2019t catch anything after seven casts,\u201d \u201cWhen you\u2019re playing blackjack, assume any unseen card is an \u20188,\u2019\u201d and \u201cIf someone fails to maintain eye contact when you\u2019re explaining something to them, assume they don\u2019t believe you\u201d).\u00a0 Rules of thumb also include heuristics: assumptions and schemes that often (but not always) provide useful guidance (e.g., \u201cMy experience is representative of reality,\u201d \u201cIf you are having difficulty understanding a problem, try drawing a picture,\u201d \u201cIf an abstract problem proves daunting, try examining a concrete example,\u201d and, \u201cIf you\u2019re having trouble solving a specific problem, try solving a more general problem first\u201d). Rules of thumb also include proverbs (e.g., \u201cTwo heads are better than one,\u201d \u201cLook before you leap,\u201d and \u201cAbsence makes the heart grow fonder\u201d).<\/p>\n

Some rules of thumb are hard to distinguish from imprecise beliefs. Although their descriptions of the phenomena, conditions, and outcomes to which they refer may be less clearly defined than those of imprecise beliefs, they resemble imprecise beliefs in that they make rough predictions (e.g., rules of thumb about trout fishing and blackjack) or specify approaches to problems that promise to increase chances of success (e.g., \u201cTwo heads are better than one,\u201d and \u201cLook before you leap\u201d).<\/p>\n

The distinction between imprecise beliefs and rules of thumb lies in the guidance they offer. If a belief can be reasonably expected, if followed closely, to increase the believer\u2019s chances of success, it is best considered imprecise. If, upon careful examination, it appears that the value of the belief lies in its capacity to draw the believer\u2019s attention to significant issues that he or she might otherwise have overlooked, the belief is best considered as a rule of thumb.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, rules of thumb like, \u201cMy experience is representative of reality,\u201d which make hard-to-falsify assertions about the nature of reality or what we can derive from our encounters with it, bear a similarity to catalytic narratives. However, catalytic narratives transform believers\u2019 vision and understanding, while rules of thumb merely draw believers\u2019 attention to issues that they might otherwise overlook.<\/p>\n

CHARACTERISTICS OF RULES OF THUMB<\/strong><\/p>\n

As noted above, rules of thumb provide only colloquial descriptions of the phenomena they address and are vague or silent about the conditions under which relationships between those phenomena hold. That lack of precision allows rules of thumb, if taken literally, to contradict one another. Consider the paired rules of thumb below, which, while offering conflicting advice, are silent as to how to choose between them:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Look before you leap\/He who hesitates is lost
\u2022 Nothing ventured, nothing gained\/Better safe than sorry
\u2022 Great minds think alike\/Fools seldom differ
\u2022 Two heads are better than one\/If you want something done right, do it yourself
\u2022 Many hands make light work\/Too many cooks spoil the broth
\u2022 Absence makes the heart grow fonder\/Out of sight, out of mind
\u2022 What will be, will be\/Life is what you make it
\u2022 Cross your bridges when you come to them\/Forewarned is forearmed
\u2022 The more, the merrier\/Two\u2019s company; three\u2019s a crowd<\/p>\n

Between their colloquial descriptions of the phenomena they address and their imprecision or silence about the conditions under which they hold, rules of thumb offer little more than elusive hints about the nature of reality. Consistent with a broad range of observations, they are unaccountable for any expectations they may inspire in believers.<\/p>\n

Predictably, failures of rules of thumb have little impact on believers\u2019 faith in their utility. Often, those who unsuccessfully attempt to apply a rule of thumb are considered responsible for having misunderstood that rule of thumb or the conditions under which it appertains. As noted previously, it\u2019s easy to imagine someone saying something like, \u201cI thought my girlfriend would be happy that I asked a few of my friends to accompany us on our first weekend away together. You know, \u2018The more, the merrier.’ But she was disappointed that we weren’t alone. I should have known that she expected a more romantic trip.”<\/p>\n

ON THE AMBIGUITY OF RULES OF THUMB: A SUMMARY<\/strong><\/p>\n

In sum, rules of thumb are quite ambiguous. Not only are their predictions vague, but their second-order precepts encourage believers to blame themselves \u2013 rather than their beliefs \u2013 when things go wrong. Those characteristics make it unlikely that believers will reject rules of thumb that provide little or no useful guidance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

USED WISELY, RULES OF THUMB CAN ENRICH OUR LIVES<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite their ambiguity, rules of thumb can enrich our lives by drawing our attention to issues that matter. For example, the religious movement to which I belong doesn\u2019t view its holiest books as sources of unassailable truth. Rather, it views critical discussion of those books as a time-honored approach to examining issues like what makes life meaningful and enjoyable, how to get along with people, what we owe one another, and so on.<\/p>\n

But we don\u2019t need to look to my faith for examples. The proverbs above draw attention to vital questions like:<\/p>\n

\u2022 What do you do when you\u2019re faced with a risky choice?
\u2022 When does seeking advice make sense, and when is it wise to trust yourself?
\u2022 How much respect does conventional wisdom merit?
\u2022 When is it wise to accept and delight in life as it is, and when is it wise to struggle bravely, though the odds are against you?<\/p>\n

HOW TO TELL YOU VIEW A BELIEF AS A \u201cRULE OF THUMB\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

If, upon reflecting on how you\u2019ve used a belief, you realize that you\u2019ve expected it to provide nothing more than encouragement to think about things that matter, you can safely conclude that you\u2019ve been treating that belief as a rule of thumb.<\/p>\n

That said, we rarely we view our beliefs as doing little more than encouraging us to attend to meaningful issues. If you think about the guidance you expect rules of thumb to offer, it\u2019s likely you\u2019ll discover that you\u2019ve been relying on rules of thumb to provide guidance that only imprecise or precise beliefs can deliver.<\/p>\n

EXERCISE 12<\/span><\/strong>
DETERMINING WHETHER BELIEFS<\/span><\/strong>
ARE APPROPRIATELY CLASSIFIED AS \u201cRULES OF THUMB\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

1. Refer to the list of beliefs you generated during Exercises 7A, 9, 10, or 11. If none of those lists is readily available, identify one or two beliefs that guide you in each of the areas below. Suggested areas from which to draw beliefs are:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 where you find joy<\/span>
\u2022 where you find meaning and purpose<\/span>
\u2022 your view of others \u2013 especially those whose views differ from your own<\/span>
\u2022 your personal life<\/span>
\u2022 your vocational\/professional life<\/span>
\u2022 advice\/guidance you offer others<\/span>
\u2022 political positions you advocate<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Choose three or more beliefs you rely on for guidance and are interested in examining. If you have not already done so, use the questionnaire found in Exercise 7A to determine whether those beliefs are informative or reassuring. Don\u2019t be concerned if you find it hard to determine the category to which some or all the rules of thumb you assess fall.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Print the appropriate number of copies of the tool below.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Write each belief in the space containing the sentence stem, \u201cI believe that . . .\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. Keeping the pertinent belief in mind, answer each of the questions in \u201cA Tool to Help You Determine Whether a Belief is a Rule of Thumb.\u2019\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

6. Record any thoughts, feelings, or questions that arise during this exercise in the space provided.<\/span><\/p>\n

A TOOL TO HELP YOU DETERMINE<\/span><\/strong>
WHETHER A BELIEF<\/span><\/strong>
IS A RULE OF THUMB<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n

Belief to be examined: I BELIEVE THAT . . .<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

To determine whether the belief in question is a rule of thumb, decide whether it possesses characteristics 1), 2), 3) as well as characteristic 4), characteristic 5), or both.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

1) Its assertions about the issues it addresses are vague due to at least two of the three characteristics below<\/span><\/p>\n

a. It provides only colloquial descriptions of the phenomena it deals with.\u00a0<\/span>
b. It is vague or silent about the conditions under which its claims hold.<\/span>
c. Its claims are vaguely defined.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

2) Its ambiguity allows it to account, after the fact, for a wide range of realities.<\/span><\/p>\n

3) Upon careful examination, it appears to have little effect on the believer\u2019s vision and\/or understanding of the issues it addresses.<\/span><\/p>\n

4) Failures of its belief-inspired predictions and belief-inspired plans have little effect on believers\u2019 confidence.<\/span><\/p>\n

5) Upon careful examination, it cannot be expected to reliably\u00a0 increase the believer\u2019s odds of success.<\/span><\/p>\n

What thoughts, feelings, or questions arose during this exercise?<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BELIEF: AN OWNER\u2019S MANUALARTICLE 12 A CLOSER LOOK AT AMBIGUITYPART 5:RULES OF THUMB More ambiguous than imprecise beliefs and less ambiguous than catalytic narratives are beliefs I refer to as \u201crules of thumb.\u201d Rules of thumb include \u2013 but are not limited to \u2013 maxims that come to mind when we think of that phrase … Continue reading “Article 12”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-143","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/143","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=143"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/143\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":936,"href":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/143\/revisions\/936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/barneysplace.net\/site\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=143"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}